First, I need to declare that I am not paranoid. I am not a conspiracy theorist and I am NOT one to worry too much about health issues. But, as a community, I think we need to understand what it means to run a large scale race in the age of the Coronavirus.
I posted something over the weekend on Facebook about the upcoming United NYC Half that’s scheduled to happen this weekend and was accused of adding to the panic. Seriously? Like I’m the ONLY person who’s had the thought cross their mind that the race may be cancelled or postponed (but let’s be honest, it ain’t gonna get postponed).
I get that we’ve all trained hard (well, some of you have anyway). I get that the media is probably making more to this than there is and causing panic and hysteria.
But I think we also need to look at this all with a critical and realistic eye.
Why Cancel the NYC Half
No, this is not comparable to cancelling the 2012 NYC Marathon (that was about critical resources that the marathon would have used that were needed in areas of NYC that were devastated by Superstorm Sandy).
This is about trying to contain a virus that has the potential to become the next seasonal flu. Or worse.
So I want to talk about why I think it’s going to be cancelled (and please know that I hope I’m wrong).
First, it’s not about race day. Well, it is, but that’s really a minor part of the issue.
NYC Half Runner Demographics
There were 24,645 finishers in 2019. Of them, 12,215 were from outside the five boroughs of NYC. Of the 12K, we don’t know how many drove in and out that same day, or flew in and stayed in a hotel. But for the sake of argument, let’s say that the number who had to travel was half of the “outsiders.”
Exposure to COVID-19
So the number of people who had to get on a plane or a train (and I don’t mean subway, but that’s another aspect we need to consider) is 6,000. Then they need to stay in a hotel, take the subway (which almost all of us do), go to a crowded expo to pick up a bib and shirt, go out to eat, get into a crowded corral (where you need to be super early to check your gear), what about porta-potties? Then, run the race while wiping sweat from your face, dodging snot-rockets and spit from other runners and drinking and throwing cups all over the road.
AND THEN after that, it’s back on the subway, back out to restaurants, back to the train or plane where you continue to stand (or sit at this point) in order to wait for your preferred mode of travel.
That is a lot of contact with a lot of people who may or may not be in contact with someone who has been exposed.
So what do you do?
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that as runners, we’re probably a healthier demographic than most of the population just because we tend to take a close look at what use to fuel our bodies and that we, well, we run!
But, even if we’re all in top health, the CDC recommends a six foot spread between people as a best practice, how realistic do you think that is in all the scenarios above?
Did you see the article from Popular Mechanics about the LA Marathon? It’s pretty good and well, you know #math.
Look, I hope we can all look back at this in a few months, shake our heads and think, wow, we were CRAZY to think all that.
But until that time, I’m concerned. And confused. And not sure what I should do.
I appreciate the part where you say you’re concerned and confused. That applies to a lot of folks, especially when they see how the media is handling this, how the many levels of government (in a big election year) are handling it and how the public is reacting to it. But, and not to make light of any virus or illness, I have to ask, two years ago, H1N1 killed over 100,000 in the U.S. and I don’t recall a fraction of the hysteria I see now with less than 600 individuals infected in a country of 327,000,000+ nor the cancellation of any races because of it. Why this time? Why our half and not the L.A. Marathon? If city hall wants to make a point of canceling a large scale event why not start with a Knicks, Rangers, Nets or Islanders game this week? The St. Patrick’s day parade? I’d accept the idea if it applied to all large scale events but if it’s just our race what is the real reason? I don’t think the race should be canceled but like you I’m starting to lean towards believing it will. I already lost Tokyo this year, this would just add to that frustration. At least I can still walk out my door and still run.
All very solid points Scott. And yeah, I’m about to head out for a run. Sorry you were impacted by Tokyo. That must have stung.
I agree