I’ve been speculating for a few weeks that the TCS NYC Marathon and all other major marathons scheduled for the fall will be cancelled.
I’ve been accused of negative thinking at best, and well, things I’m not willing to repeat here at worst. Of course, I just see it as being realistic. Without a vaccine, I just don’t see how any major event can be held without the risk of a second (or third) wave of infection from Covid-19.
Okay, if you’re one of the folks still hoping for a major race this year, be it a fall marathon or your favorite Half or 10K, you’re going to say, “But Eric, November is still seven months away. If they’re going to cancel, why wait, why not just do it now? See, there’s still hope”
To which I reply, no, not really.
Costs to host a marathon
See, putting on a race that shuts down a section of a major city (Boston, Philly, NYC) costs millions of dollars. There’s the permitting, the admin and pre-race marketing, then on days leading up to the race, there’s facility rentals, security, production fees (those start lines and fancy finish lines don’t build themselves) and more.
I know it’s on its own level, but let’s take the NYC Marathon as an example. If I’m reading the 2017 IRS 990 form correctly, (this is the financial disclosure form not for profits are required to publish) the New York Road Runners had expenses for the NYC Marathon that year of $43,302,934.
Now, I’m not here to bash the org for spending that kind of money on the race. If you’ve ever run it, you KNOW they put on a good party. And it’s NYC, it’s expensive here.
No, I’m here to tell you that an organization like the NYRR, or any organization that puts on a major marathon is going to lose a BOATLOAD of money by cancelling its race. And that would just be bad business practice.
But there’s a catch. If, let’s say a major city like Berlin chooses to mandate that all large-scale events not be permitted, well, then, the organizers of the race in said city are MANDATED to cancel that race.
Force majeure
And, as someone who works for a not for profit that puts on major events, I can tell you that every contract we sign associated with an event has a force majeure clause. That is, a clause that essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties. And social distancing requirements or limiting events to under 5,000 are “circumstance beyond the control of the parties.”
And for all the expenses that don’t fall under force majeure, well, you can bet there is an insurance policy that will cover them.
Do I know any of this as fact? No, this is pure speculation on my part.
But, it makes sense, right?
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For all of our sakes, I really just hope that if the NYCM is ultimately going to be canceled, that they do it sooner rather than later.
That way thinking can change, mindsets can change, planning can change and preparation can change.
And I can look forward to a summer on the bike.
Stay strong, everybody.
Jack, I agree with you — I hope that if they cancel the NYCM it is sooner rather than later. For the Hurricane Sandy NYCM, I had flown from Los Angeles to NYC for the marathon — just to have it cancelled shortly after I flew in for it. I much prefer knowing now if I must cancel my flights and hotel. I love the NYCM — I hope it all comes back strong the following year if it is cancelled this year. [Eric’s reasoning makes so much sense to me — I bet he’s right!!]